Green bonds refer to bonds issued mainly by power companies to finance energy efficient projects
The global economy may just be entering a new phase.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
Monetary policy stance to depend on inflation data
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
Nifty could fall to 9,500 levels; not a good time to bottom fish, say experts
From the peak of $3.67 trillion in January, India's market cap has eroded by $676 billion amid rising bond yields and a record-breaking sell-off by overseas investors.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investment in the domestic debt market in October was the third highest during the current calendar year as foreign investors rushed to lock in higher returns amid global uncertainty and geo-political tensions, market participants said. FPI inflows in debt stood at Rs 6, 322 crore in October against Rs 768 crore in September, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Market participants said that the majority of the inflows were channelled through corporate bonds.
Between Friday's and Monday's close: Yields on 10-year bonds up 6 basis points, rupee slides 13 paise against dollar, Sensex ends flat
Among the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Power Grid, Nestle, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Titan and Axis Bank were among the major laggards. Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Nestle were the gainers.
The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies hit an all-time high of Rs 337.67 lakh crore ($4 trillion) on Friday amid a rally in equities, mainly on account of favourable macroeconomic data and continuous foreign fund inflows. Rising for the fourth straight day, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 492.75 points or 0.74 per cent to settle at 67,481.19 points. During the day, it rallied 575.89 points or 0.85 per cent to 67,564.33 points.
Experts say foreign investor sentiment was bolstered by the US Federal Reserve's decision to go slow with interest rate hikes and hopes of political stability.
The value of foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of a massive sell-off by foreign investors and a correction in the Indian equity markets, especially in the large and mid-cap sectors. "At the end of the quarter ended December 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities fell to $654 billion, which was lower than $667 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a fall of around 2 per cent," the report noted.
'No one cares about fiscal deficit now. Or for that matter, inflation.' 'The focus is on growth and growth alone.' 'RBI needs to break the risk aversion of banks and infuse adrenaline in their veins', says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
Overseas investors have pulled out a net Rs 1,14,855.97 crore from the Indian markets in the current year so far, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth Rs 48,261.65 crore so far this month, taking the year-to-date tally this year to a massive Rs 114,855.97 crore, according to depositories data. The exodus of foreign investors was largely owing to inflationary pressures and deepening global macroeconomic conditions following the Russia-Ukraine war, experts said.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
With no major domestic market-moving event scheduled this week, stock market investors would largely focus on global trends and foreign fund movement, and may face volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. This week Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are due for release which would provide further cues to the market, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. "With all major events behind us, participants will take cues from global markets, crude and currency market movement.
Among Sensex stocks, Wipro gained the most by 3.29 per cent. Ultratech Cement, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, NTPC, M&M, HDFC Bank, ITC, Kotak Bank and Axis Bank were among the winners. On the other hand, HCL Tech fell the most by 1.24 per cent. SBI, TCS, Infosys, IndusInd Bank and Tata Steel also dropped.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Novice investors must understand that volatility is an inherent part of equity markets and learn to navigate through such phases.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will stay away from changing key rates - including the reverse repo rate - this fiscal in the backdrop of Omicron. However, it will continue to shape the rate movements through liquidity market operations. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, said whether Omicron surge or not, there is not going to be any hike this year. However, the central bank may continue to shape rates through market operations.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said 67 per cent of the decline in the foreign exchange reserves since April was due to valuation changes arising from strengthening US dollar and higher American bond yields. The forex reserves, which stood at $606.475 billion as on April 2, have declined to $537.5 billion as on September 23. It was also the eighth straight week when the reserves declined.
The government plans to bring down its stake to 26 per cent in these two banks, which are yet to be identified. This may not come in the way of getting investors for these banks, provided the government is willing to step back rather than run them the way it had been doing for over five decades since these banks were nationalised, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Kindling the private sector's animal spirits is more important than focusing on how government can give jobs on its own.'
While the FPI limit on most bond issues would not be raised above 6 per cent, there would be some in which there would be no limits, reports Arup Roychoudhury.
For existing investors, it may be prudent to redeem their current investments in gilt or dynamic schemes and invest it in short-term funds, if the exit load is not very high, advises Malhar Majumder.
BSE benchmark Sensex plummeted over 388 points to close at 58,576.37 on Tuesday, tracking weakness in index majors Wipro, RIL and Bharti Airtel amid a weak trend in global markets. Investors also remained cautious ahead of crucial macroeconomic data announcements -- industrial production for February and inflation rate for March -- post trading hours. The Sensex declined 388.20 points or 0.66 per cent to settle at 58,576.37. During the day, the benchmark tanked 666 points or 1.12 per cent to 58,298.57.
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Infosys, Titan, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major laggards. On the other hand, Tata Motors, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
A negative oil shock, together with rising government-bond yields, could clip the recovery's wings, says Nouriel Roubini.
Continuing their massive selling spree for the ninth consecutive month, foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth Rs 50,203 crore in June -- the highest net outflow in over two years -- amid aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, elevated inflation and relatively higher valuation of domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have now pulled out around Rs 2.2 lakh crore from domestic equities in the first six months of 2022 -- the highest-ever net withdrawal by them. Before that, FPIs withdrew Rs 52,987 crore in the entire 2008, data with depositories showed.
Among top losers that dragged down key indices were Infosys, TCS, Reliance, SBI, Tata Steel and ITC, falling up to 2.15 per cent.
Equity market will be guided by global trends, macroeconomic data announcement and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of the rupee and Brent crude oil will also remain in focus this week, they added. "The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum.
The rating outlook change is relevant now, as the US Federal Reserve is set to end its monthly bond-buying programme in October.
The Cabinet meeting and the holy dip comes on a day that marks the first anniversary of the consecration ceremony of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.
